Tiny Island, Big Trouble
International Business • 20-Minute In-Class Interaction

The Ripple Effect

On July 24, 2026, Chinese Coast Guard vessels used water cannons against Philippine government fisheries vessels near Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine Coast Guard reported that one Chinese vessel came to within about 7 meters / 23 feet of a Philippine vessel. It was the third confrontation between the two countries that week.

Why should Walmart, Toyota, Apple, ExxonMobil, a New England seafood distributor, or an American insurance company care about this?

Once I share the resources and rules, you will have 8 minutes to figure it out!

Open the Tiny Island App

Two Stages

Stage 1 • 8 minutes Research Desk Use the app, Padlet, AI, and credible sources to answer your desk questions.
Stage 2 • 8 minutes Ripple Analysis Move from the small event to the larger international-business consequence.
Final • 4 minutes Rapid Reports Share the “So What?” — not every fact you found.

Stage 1: Research Desks

Your team has 8 minutes. Use AI as a research assistant, but verify important claims with credible sources. Use the Padlet to capture the best evidence your team finds.

Research Rules

  1. Use AI to search quickly, compare explanations, and generate follow-up questions.
  2. Verify your most important claims with credible sources.
  3. Post only your strongest findings to the Padlet — avoid flooding it with trivia.
  4. Be ready to answer: “So what does this mean for international business?”
Open the Class Padlet Open the Tiny Island App
Desk 1

The Law Desk

8-minute research sprint
Your mission: Figure out how international law can make a tiny reef, rock, shoal, or island economically important.

Questions to Investigate

  1. What is UNCLOS, and what is an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)?
  2. How far can an EEZ extend from a country's coast?
  3. Under UNCLOS, what is the difference between an island, a rock, a reef, a shoal, and a low-tide elevation?
  4. Why can the legal classification of a feature change fishing, drilling, and resource rights?
  5. What did the Philippines ask the 2016 arbitral tribunal to decide?
  6. What did the tribunal actually decide — and what did it not decide?
  7. Why does China reject the ruling?
So What?
What happens to investment, fishing, shipping, or energy exploration when countries disagree about which legal rules govern the same water?
Post your best evidence to the Padlet
Desk 2

The Flashpoint Desk

8-minute research sprint
Your mission: Understand why Scarborough Shoal has become one of the most dangerous recurring flashpoints in the region.

Questions to Investigate

  1. Where is Scarborough Shoal, and how close is it to the Philippines?
  2. Who claims it, and who currently exercises the most control around it?
  3. What happened in the 2012 standoff?
  4. What did the 2016 arbitration say about traditional fishing at Scarborough?
  5. What confrontations have occurred during 2025–2026?
  6. Why are coast guards, fisheries vessels, and other “gray-zone” actors often used instead of conventional naval combat?
  7. What could cause one encounter to escalate beyond a local fisheries dispute?
So What?
How could a collision, injury, water-cannon attack, or detention change the situation from a local confrontation into an international business risk?
Post your best evidence to the Padlet
Desk 3

The Spratly Desk

8-minute research sprint
Your mission: Determine why tiny features in the Spratly Islands have become strategic assets.

Questions to Investigate

  1. Where are the Spratly Islands, and which countries claim parts of them?
  2. What is Second Thomas Shoal?
  3. Why is the BRP Sierra Madre deliberately grounded there?
  4. Why does the Philippines conduct regular resupply missions?
  5. Why does China attempt to interfere with some of those missions?
  6. What artificial islands and facilities has China constructed in the Spratlys?
  7. Why do runways, radar, ports, and military facilities change the economic meaning of otherwise tiny features?
So What?
What happens to shipping risk, insurance, investment, and supply chains if repeated coast-guard confrontations become military confrontations?
Post your best evidence to the Padlet
Desk 4

The Map Desk

8-minute research sprint
Your mission: Prove that the “South China Sea dispute” is not one dispute.

Questions to Investigate

  1. Locate the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, the Paracel Islands, and Macclesfield Bank.
  2. Which governments claim each area?
  3. Which claims overlap?
  4. Which disputes involve China and the Philippines? China and Vietnam? Other combinations?
  5. How does physical distance from each claimant's coastline affect the argument?
  6. How do overlapping EEZ claims make bilateral settlement difficult?
  7. Why is resolving the “South China Sea dispute” harder than negotiating an agreement between two countries?
So What?
How does the number of claimants, treaties, legal arguments, and overlapping interests increase uncertainty for businesses operating in the region?
Post your best evidence to the Padlet
Desk 5

The Global Business Desk

8-minute research sprint
Your mission: Advise a multinational CEO: why should a business thousands of miles away care?

Questions to Investigate

  1. How important is the South China Sea to global commercial shipping?
  2. What major energy flows move through these waters?
  3. Why are commercial fishing grounds economically and politically important?
  4. How could rising maritime risk affect freight rates or marine insurance?
  5. How could disruptions affect supply chains and consumer prices far outside Southeast Asia?
  6. What does the U.S.–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty say about armed attacks on Philippine forces and public vessels?
  7. Why could an encounter involving Chinese and Philippine coast-guard vessels eventually matter to American firms or the U.S. military?
So What?
Build the strongest case you can that a local maritime confrontation could become a worldwide business concern.
Post your best evidence to the Padlet

Stage 2: Ripple Analysis

Now move beyond facts. Click any sequence repeatedly to reveal the chain from a seemingly small event to a larger international-business consequence. Then create your own using evidence from the Padlet.

Your Team's Job

PEBBLEWhat happened?
RIPPLEWhat changes next?
WAVEHow does the effect spread?
IMPACTWhat does business feel?

1. Scarborough Encounter

Pebble
A Chinese and Philippine government vessel collide or one uses a water cannon.
Ripple
Diplomatic protests intensify and patrols increase around the shoal.
Wave
Regional military readiness rises and outside treaty partners become more involved.
Business Impact
Shipping firms and insurers reassess risk, potentially raising costs for trade moving through the region.
Click to reveal the next step.

2. Fishing Access

Pebble
Filipino fishing vessels lose reliable access to a traditional fishing ground.
Ripple
Catch volumes and local fishing incomes fall.
Wave
Seafood supply shifts toward alternative grounds, suppliers, or imports.
Business Impact
Processors, wholesalers, restaurants, and consumers may face higher costs or sourcing changes.
Click to reveal the next step.

3. Second Thomas Shoal

Pebble
A Philippine resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre is blocked or damaged.
Ripple
The Philippines sends another mission with greater security support.
Wave
The risk of an armed confrontation increases and treaty questions become more urgent.
Business Impact
Companies consider contingency routes, inventory buffers, supplier diversification, and geopolitical risk premiums.
Click to reveal the next step.

4. Energy Exploration

Pebble
A company plans offshore energy exploration in waters claimed by more than one government.
Ripple
Legal uncertainty and government pressure delay permits or operations.
Wave
Investment is postponed, redirected, or made more expensive.
Business Impact
Energy firms change capital-allocation decisions and governments face slower resource development.
Click to reveal the next step.

5. Shipping Lane Risk

Pebble
A confrontation temporarily closes or makes a major route feel less predictable.
Ripple
Carriers adjust routes, schedules, or security procedures.
Wave
Transit times, fuel use, freight rates, and insurance costs rise.
Business Impact
Manufacturers and retailers experience higher landed costs, delays, inventory problems, and possible price increases.
Click to reveal the next step.

Now Build Your Own Ripple

Use one fact your team posted to the Padlet. Your final 45-second report should use this format:

“Our small cause is ________. It matters because ________, which could lead to ________, and ultimately affect international business by ________.”

Return to the Class Padlet