Know the rules.
Explain your results.
A guide to the revised trade simulation: what earns growth, what limits deals, and where classroom assumptions replace economic measurement.
Growth credits & penalties
Export growth credit
Every $100M in negotiated export sales adds $20M to modeled GDP. Applies in practice, Round 1, and Round 2.
Domestic tariff drag
In Round 2, every $1M of duties paid by domestic importers reduces modeled GDP by $0.25M. This is an assumed additional effect on demand, profits, and investment.
Critical need secured
Earn two percentage points of growth for securing your country’s designated critical resource.
Critical need missing
Applied only when a scored round closes. While open, this penalty remains pending. Practice results are disposable.
Secondary needs
Earn 0.5 percentage points per secured secondary need. Maximum: three rewards, totaling +1.5 points.
Resource threshold
For each need, qualifying imports must reach 1% of round-start GDP. Tariffs do not count toward resource attainment.
Trading guardrails
Export capacity
Total goods exports per round cannot exceed 20% of that country’s round-start GDP.
Import budget
Goods purchases plus tariffs cannot exceed 15% of the importer’s round-start GDP.
Single-deal limit
One deal’s goods value cannot exceed 5% of the importer’s round-start GDP. The tariff also must fit its remaining import budget.
Student tariff choices
Round 2 only: choose 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, or 25%, subject to instructor approval.
Instructor override
The instructor may set any tariff rate from 0% to 25%. Zero removes the tariff.
Net modeled GDP gain = (Exports × 20%) − (Domestic tariff payments × 25%)
Growth (%) = (Net gain ÷ Round-start GDP) × 100 + Resource effect (pp)
One $186M deal • 5% tariff
Novara example: with $3,724M starting GDP, $80M exports, and +0.5 pp resource credit: [(16 − 2.325) ÷ 3,724] × 100 + 0.5 = 0.87% growth. Holding sales and resources fixed, growth without tariff drag would be 0.93%. Difference: about 0.062 percentage points.
What else is built in?
- Countries have fictional starting GDP, fixed export categories, and assigned needs.
- Electronics qualifies toward a Hi-Tech need.
- Trade balance is informational; imports do not directly subtract from this growth score.
- Exporters receive negotiated sale proceeds, without an automatic tariff deduction.
- Higher budget use can constrain resources; the additional 25% drag models other domestic effects. It is not a measured welfare loss.
Read the result correctly
- Practice is reset before scored trading begins.
- Round 1 ending GDP becomes Round 2 starting GDP.
- Trade values and tariff rates are locked when a deal is recorded; later tariff changes do not rewrite it.
- Rank countries by percentage growth, not absolute ending GDP.
- The no-drag comparison holds actual sales and resource achievements fixed; it does not predict all behavior without tariffs.
- Exporters can lose sales through smaller orders, supplier switching, or negotiated price cuts.