INT 220 • Hybrid • Week 2 Asynchronous Activity

USMCA 2026: What Does the Data Suggest?

Audit a real international-business claim using trade and economic evidence, then make a judgment that separates what the data show from what they cannot prove.

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The Situation

The agreement survived. The argument did not.

On July 1, 2026, the United States, Mexico, and Canada conducted the first required six-year review of the USMCA. The United States did not agree to renew the agreement in its current form. The agreement nevertheless remains in force while the countries continue negotiations and future reviews.

One U.S. concern was the trade deficit with Canada and Mexico. Your task is not to defend or attack that position. Your task is to ask a narrower and more useful question:

What does the available economic and trade data actually suggest about how the three USMCA economies have fared?
Analytical caution: A trade deficit is an observation. Calling a trade arrangement “fair” or “unfair” is a judgment. Your job is to determine how far the evidence can reasonably take you.
Step 1

Review the USMCA and the 2026 dispute

USMCA overview infographic

Use this as a quick refresher on the structure and major provisions of USMCA.

USMCA 2026 review infographic

Use this as the starting point for the 2026 review and the questions that followed.

Research Support

Use credible data, not search-result snippets.

World Bank

Use World Development Indicators for country-level measures such as GDP growth, GDP per capita PPP, unemployment, exports, imports, and FDI.

Open World Bank Data

IMF IMTS

Use International Trade in Goods by Partner Country for bilateral merchandise trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Open IMF Trade Data

USTR

Use the U.S. Trade Representative for the policy context surrounding the 2026 review and subsequent negotiations.

Open USTR July 2026
AI use: You may use generative AI to define terms, suggest search strategies, or identify possible sources. Do not use an AI-generated figure as evidence. Verify every number in the original data source you cite.
Step 2

Country Performance Snapshot

Compare a pre-USMCA baseline with the latest full-year figure you can verify. Use 2019 as the baseline where the indicator is available. Record the exact year of the newer observation if it differs across indicators.

Indicator United States — 2019 United States — latest Canada — 2019 Canada — latest Mexico — 2019 Mexico — latest
GDP growth (%)
GDP per capita, PPP
Unemployment (%)
Exports of goods & services
Step 3

Audit the U.S. Trade-Deficit Claim

Now move from overall country performance to the specific issue raised during the review: U.S. bilateral trade. Use IMF IMTS or another official bilateral trade source. Compare 2019 with 2025, the latest complete pre-review year.

United States ↔ Canada

United States ↔ Mexico

Step 4

Who Appears to Have Fared Better?

Use the evidence from both sections. Your answer should distinguish between country performance and bilateral trade balance.

Step 5

Evaluate the U.S. Position

The United States argued that the existing arrangement required reconsideration and pointed in part to trade deficits. Based on your audit, how strongly does the evidence support the idea that the agreement's outcomes were unfavorable to the United States?

Step 6

International Business Takeaway

Source Log

Show where your evidence came from.

Provide the URLs for at least three sources you actually opened and used.

Submit

Download your completed audit.

Your responses are stored in this browser while you work. When finished, download the Word-readable report and upload that file to the Week 2 Brightspace assignment.

Complete the fields above before downloading your final report.